Internet of Things and Services Blog | Bosch Software Innovations » 10 Predictions for Information and Operational Technology

With the start of 2012, I would like to offer a few 2011 observations concerning BPM/Business Rules Management or IBPM (intelligent BPM) and continued predictive conditions for 2012.

1. Continued Climate of Financial Risk

In 2011, the unprecedented financial risk, on a global scale sharpened corporate focus on risk management. We especially saw sovereign risk increase in the Euro zone. This risk led to a keen interest in our credit management platform  and the Visual Rules product, in general. Also, in this risk-averse climate many companies making software purchases were avoiding small vendors in favor of the large. The result is a very harsh environment for the small technology companies.

2. Complete Consolidation of BPM/BRM

A (nearly) complete consolidation of the software industry into more complex entities with varying core strategies, most notably: the acquisition of inubit AG by Bosch and the acquisition of Savvion and Corticon by Progress Software. This is not only a result of the prevailing financial conditions, it is also the outcome of a maturing process modeling approach such as described here (Enterprise BPM Blog, available in German only). The IBPM modeling tool kit is growing and Bosch Software Innovations’s increasingly complex technology challenges will require these. Because the consolidation is pretty much complete, we will begin to see many of the smaller companies in BPM and Business Rule spaces fail.

3. Rise of the Internet of Things

2012 will see the continued growth of platform and cloud development as a key component of new business models especially in the ‘internet of things’. The internet created expectations of increasingly inter-connected solutions. These ‘Solutions’ include a number of ‘interoperable’ products in combinations that create synergistic value for customers. Interoperability is the capability of diverse systems and organizations to work together (inter-operate). The ‘internet of things’, which Roy Schulte of Gartner calls the marriage of operational technology with information technology, increasingly appears to be about creating these synergies.

4. Next Generation Energy Systems

Related to the internet of things and complex process models is an emerging generation of energy and mobility solutions. This next generation of energy systems includes the participation of renewable energy sources and microgrids, including direct current microgrids. Microgrids are a form of Distributed generation, or on-site, dispersed, embedded or, decentralized generation. Mobility solutions include a large domain of technical challenges including support for the plugin electric vehicle and the connected vehicle. Bosch Software is involved in a microgrid pilot program in conjunction with the Berkeley LBL labs. It is described here.

5. The Rise of Business Event Processing

Business Events and Events Processing have become a first class citizen in business modeling. The analysts at the Gartner believe that ‘intelligent’ business process management systems must include event management tools in order to provide continuous intelligence. Roy Schulte from the Gartner Group defines  a business event as an event that is meaningful for conducting commercial, industrial, and governmental or trade activities.   Business Event Processing and Business Process Management can create an effective combination of timely event pattern detection and dynamic business process execution. This continuous intelligence provides the critical situational awareness needed for advanced security applications.

6. Visual Modeling Approaches that Empower the Business Analyst

Continued interest in visual modeling methods such as the organization modeling and BPMN, which is used by the inubit platform and the directed graph approach of Visual Rules. These are both described in the second edition of the Microguide to BPMN. This leads to an increased direct involvement of the business analyst in the solution; which also leads to increasingly sophisticated analysts.

7. New Computing Form Factors

2012 will see the emergence of new, unexpected computing form factors that will require process support. Several vendors are offering important, ‘lite’ computing devices that support local processing capabilities for building and home energy and security. Examples include the Nest from former Apple Executives and the GE Nucleus and the Schlage Link. These forms are critical for remote and offsite control of the ‘things’ of the building.

8. Continued Developments in the Plug-In Vehicle Marketplace

The emergence of the plugin electric vehicle. Despite relatively small numbers of sales in this trial market, the PEV should be considered a solid success. Both GM and Nissan have plans to increase their production. Related to this in the mobility sector, expect to see the PEV charger industry to change. According to OEM surveys, over 90% of PEV drivers have never used public charging stations, so most commercial activity will be either home-based or in fleet solutions at work. The public infrastructure for the PEV will grow slowly. Again, this area is a focus of Bosch Software Innovations.

9. Developments in Open Source

There was a quiet exit of the ‘open-source’ software role as a large-scale component for the enterprise. Open source is still very important as a source of code libraries, ideas and frameworks.

10. An Overarching Prediction: a New Tone of Efficiencies and Cost Reductions

As we enter the 5^th year following the real-estate crisis of 2008, we still face hard efficiencies and economic realities both in the EU and the US. Throughout, government and business have strived to improve efficiencies and reduce cost. Now, it seems that all of the easy cuts and choices have been made.

As Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities stated:

“You can’t keep on firing people. We’ve gotten so mean and so lean that you naturally get to the point where there are fewer people to let go.”

Yet, in order to operate in these times, more serious efficiencies must be discovered. Many services, from communications, healthcare, food safety to energy security will need to be delivered at even higher levels of efficiencies. This means more complex technologies and delivery by the capable teams that understand the risks.

At Bosch Software Innovations, we know that the only way to achieve this is with an engineered approach that incorporates a wide spectrum of capabilities, from business process management, event modeling to hardware testing and development. 2012 will witness new products and approaches that combine these and Bosch Software Innovations will be a leader in this space.

Article by Tom Debevoise

Since 2008, I have been with Bosch Software Innovations. I am mainly focused on government and defense projects. I am also interested in building practices that empower the business analyst or expert to use a framework of software and methods to create their own process, services and managed events. I am the author of three books, "The Data Warehouse Method," "Business Process Management with a Business Rules Approach" (2006), and "A Microguide to Process Modeling in BPMN" (2008).I have specific business rules experience in the fields of Supply Chain Management, Petroleum, Pharmaceutical Clinical Trials, and Health Care. At various times at Bosch Software Innovations, I manage teams of engineers, and technologist to complete complex systems integrations. When I am not working I like to play classical guitar and ride a mountain bike.
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